Thong Le

Thong Le

EconomyVN là kênh cập nhật nhanh chóng tin tức về tài chính, kiến thức và chiến lược forex (ngoại hối), vàng,… từ thị trường kinh tế thế giới.

After a Brexit-fueled bumpy start, markets entered a long and boring summer lull, with many traders closing books and going on vacation.

But as we get into September, the summer lull looks set to end with a bang, as investors returning from vacation turn their attention to the growing possibility the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in the weeks ahead.

After a long and boring summer, traders finally return to the market

Saturday, 27 August 2016 11:06

Suspected of corruption at Lotte

EconomyVN - Prosecutors are to clarify the allegations of shady funds, tax evasion and abuse of trust involving some leaders of the Lotte Group.

Information about the death of Mr. Lee In-won appeared in just hours before the prosecutors expected to interrogate him at 9:30 in the same day, for alleging corruption scandal at Lotte Group. Under the plan, Mr. Lee will be convened to investigate the alleged establishment of the slush fund and many other illegal activities related to Lotte Group.

Mr. Lee is suspected to play an important role in the operation of large-scale tax evasion, slush fund worth billions of Won and allegedly involving many supposedly shady deals between subsidiaries of corporations .

Prosecutors are also clarifying allegations of shady funds, tax evasion and abuse of trust involving some leaders of Lotte Group.

In June, prosecutors raided the headquarters and branches of Lotte in Korea to search for evidence in the investigation.

Thong Le

Currently, Brent oil futures for October delivery in the first time exceeded $50/barrel, the highest level since Brexit in June.

EconomyVN - Data of US gasoline reserves reduced, this has the positive impact, helping oil prices gained strongly on the market, including Brent oil prices for October delivery in the first time exceeded $50USD/barrel, the highest level since Brexit in June.

On the Asian market, Brent prices fell slightly but remained at $50.8/barrel. WTI light sweet crude oil prices also rose by 0.27%. Oil prices will likely keep upward trend, following news that the Petroleum Exporting Countries prepare to agree on output restrictions.

Rising oil prices also helped the Asian major indexes such as Japan's Nikkei 225, Hang Seng of Hong Kong (China) and South Korea's Kospi rose early today (August 19th), but did not last later.

Thong Le

Tuesday, 16 August 2016 07:07

US stocks simultaneously hit record

EconomyVN - Yesterday, all three US stock indexes reached record highs.

Although it is 3 months until the election, but according to investors on Wall Street, US stocks are following current trends like Hillary's victory, because by far Wall Street agree that, if Hillary has a victory, the stock will rally. History shows that every candidate of incumbent President party wins, the market will go up. In this case, that is Hillary Clinton.

Currently, the stock investors have also an interesting test, in which they track the market in three months, from August to November. If the trend of the stock rallies, Hillary wins. And conversely, it decreases, Donald Trump will be elected.

While the latest figures show that, although he advised people to withdraw money from the market, but Trump has also a large investment in stock, up to 100 million USD.

Thong Le

Friday, 12 August 2016 11:47

World oil prices rose sharply

EconomyVN - At the close on New York Exchange, US light sweet crude oil for September delivery rose to $43.49.

World oil prices yesterday (11th of August) rose more than 4%, after Saudi Arabia's energy minister left open the possibility that this oil-producing country can implement moves to rebalance globally the "black gold" market.

At the close on New York Exchange, US light sweet crude for September delivery rose to $43.49. On London Exchange, Brent oil rose to $ 46.04.

Earlier, Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih of Saudi Arabia stated that during the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expected to take place in September, the country can negotiate "any appropriate actions".

The experts supposed that most likely the future move of Saudi Arabia can completely reverse the current data on crude oil output.

Thông Lê

EconomyVN - Walmart spent $3 billion to buy Jet.com - a name known in the US market over the past year - whether it is dear for Walmart?

According to Business Insider, business circles were not surprised with the movements of Walmart. Right from the beginning of the year, they showed a strong transition plan. The closing of about 270 worldwide stores is "painful" decision, but is not impossible to do. They no longer want to bear the name of the largest retailers in the world, in the era of digital technology.

Forbes site also provides illustrative diagrams explaining why Walmart buys Jet.com. In Amazon's total revenue, they have nearly 93% of revenue from online sales. Meanwhile, Walmart always remains at 3%. Unless escaping the retailer shadow, Walmart also takes more costs for premises, labor, and transportation of goods.

While online shopping needs of customer grow, but its online volume is too small: 10 million items compared to 200 million items of Amazon. Jet.com will reduce the "thirst" of Walmart with another 12 million items. For this, the company has spent a lot of money and effort but still limping.

CNNMoney page citing from Walmart sources said the company intends to remain Jet brand because it was so familiar to young customers. Walmart will use only the Jet technology platform to digitize its inventory gradually and thereby reduce warehousing costs. This page also provides alerts with the title: Amazon beware!

Thong Le

EconomyVN - At Bitcoin Exchange in Hong Kong (China) nearly 120,000 Bitcoin was stolen, an equivalent of 72 million USD.

72 million dollars Bitcoin stolen in Hong Kong

On 4th of August, at Bitcoin exchanges in Hong Kong nearly 120,000 Bitcoins, or $ 72 million was stolen. This is the second-largest theft of virtual currency Bitcoin in history. Bitcoin value immediately dropped by nearly one quarter after this news. It is not clear whether the theft was caused by hackers.

Japanese stocks fell sharply after the economic stimulus programs of the Central Bank

Tokyo Stock Exchange fell sharply in the trading session of the early week because investors reserved with the economic stimulus programs of Japanese Government. Late last week, Central Bank of Japan announced that they will implement monetary easing by launching extended loan packages of $ 24 billion without accompanying structural reforms. Measures to support Japan's markets were disappointed after Brexit for the financial world.

Bank of England cut interest rates to record low

To deal with Brexit, on 5th of August, Bank of England cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25%. Immediately, the stock is the first field having benefit. At session close on 05/08, in London, the FTSE 100 rose 1.59%. Shares in British banks also rose to its highest level since Brexit, thanks to the stimulus package of quantitative easing.

Thong Le

EconomyVN - on 4th of August, Bank of England (BoE) announced to cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% - it is the first time in 7 years.

Interest rates cut is one of the measures of England to deal with the aftermath of Brexit. So specifically what are package solutions?

Besides cutting interest rates by 25 points%, Bank of England has announced a series of programs to add liquidity support for banks as lending 100 billion pounds, spending 60 billion pounds to buy government bonds and 10 billion pounds to buy corporate bonds.

In a press conference immediately after this action, Governor Mark Carney has made the clearer explanations of the BoE decision. Mr. Carney started with placebo sentence that the UK is fully capable of dealing with the economic changes following the aftermath of Brexit while confirming cutting interest rates and pumping money of Bank of England is the move actively ahead of the situation. But with a series of economic data in recent days as production activities, services and construction are simultaneously reporting the results down, while services - the important position of British economy plummeted, everyone understands that economy is under pressure more clearly from Brexit.

Does Bank of England cut interest rates to negative?

The period of the difficult economy certainly just begins, BoE can do something when their intervention is also close to limit. The members of UK Monetary Policy Committee are unified that they will not bring interest rates to lower 0.

In today's speech, the Governor of the Bank of England is not confident about the prospects of the economy, he said growth will fall very sharply, unemployment will increase and Bank of England will continue to intervene, most likely early next year.

Chain of information shows that the more likely Bank of England will take interest rates to 0.1% in the beginning of next year and just cut to that level, with pumping money, and quantitative easing program. UK Treasury in the short term will also announce fiscal adjustments, the more likely the tax reduction to stimulate consumption and lending activities. The solutions to steer the economy in general have been put on the table, but even so, market predicts UK economic growth in 2017 will be still down 0.8% and the possibility of a recession in the next 18 months is still high as 50%.

Thong Le

Tuesday, 02 August 2016 02:09

Market waiting for results of RBA meeting

The focus of the market today is the result of the periodic policy meetings of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). At the July meeting, RBA kept rates at 1.75% and suggested the possibility of easing further monetary policy. Since that meeting, the Australian economy showed mixed signals with expanding manufacturing activity and increasing inflation. Meanwhile, consumer confidence declined and unemployment rose. According to a Reuters survey, only 60% of analysts predict that the RBA will cut interest rates from 1.75% to 1.5%. In the case of interest rate cut, exchange rate AUD/USD will drop quickly about 0.7450. Conversely, if policymakers delay monetary easing, rates will rise again above the level 0.76.

One other communications market is waiting today to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan will announce detailed fiscal stimulus package which was announced last week with a large scale over 28 trillion yen. Last week, Yen rose sharply as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) almost didn't significantly change in the monetary policy meeting in July, contrary to the expectations of the major market for a large-scale monetary stimulus as Japanese government determined to revive the economy, which was always bleak in this country. Analysts forecast USD/JPY may fall to threshold 100 if the market does not receive significant support from the information relating to the fiscal stimulus package of Prime Minister Abe.

Notable evolution yesterday was the strongest fall of the CAD when crude oil prices plunged in the first session of the week and WTI oil price sometimes is below 40 USD/barrel for the first time since April 2016. Oil prices began to plummet since early July due to the oversupply of gasoline and refined petroleum products along with signs of rebounding US crude production. Now, National Oil Company Saudi Arabia (Saudi Aramco) lowers oil price strongestly in years, have raised the question of whether oversupply, which made oil prices plunge in 2 years, extends in the coming months.

Tomorrow, August 3rd, Bank of England (BoE) will announce quarterly economic report and results of the periodic policy meeting. Up to 95% of analysts surveyed predicted that BoE will cut rates from 0.5% to 0.25%. Besides, many analysts also said that the BoE is likely to start again the bond purchase program which was suspended since 2012. British Pound is expected to weaken before the meeting of the BOE and after the agency announces the change in monetary policy.

GBP/USD: SELL: 1.3120, TARGET: 1.3100, STOP-LOSS: 1.3270

Tonny Le

New York Fed governor - William Dudley - said that the market should not eliminate the possibility that US Federal Reserve System (Fed) will raise interest rates this year.

In a press conference on 1sth August in Bali between Fed officials and financial managers, Mr. Dudley said that the market is too complacent as forecasting the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points from today until the end of 2017.

Thanks to improved consumption, Mr. Dudley expects the US economy will grow at a rate of 2% in the next 18 months.

If the coming information reinforces economic outlook, US monetary policy will need faster moves than the price in the future to neutralize the market because the labor market tends to tighten and the inflation increases.

In addition, Mr. Dudley also noted that the market has underestimated the ability that no.1 economy grows faster than forecast.

The risks affecting growth such as the UK to leave the European Union (EU) and other international moves will soon ease. If the events, which have a negative impact, happen, Mr. Dudley said the US economy will require a faster growth rate than people expect.

Mr. Dudley supposed that this time is too early to exclude the possibility of tightening monetary policy further in 2016. It depends on the data, and no one can predict precisely.

In last week's policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - who are directly responsible for the monetary policy of the Fed - have decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25 to 0, 5% although they admitted the job market has been strengthened and other indicators also showed growth.

The last time, when Fed raised interest rates in December last year, is also the first time as they raised interest rates from nearly 0% for almost a decade.

On the other hand, in their statement, FOMC said inflation has not shown signs of growth yet and as the forecast, this situation will last. Chairman Janet Yellen and her colleagues noted that inflation will only increase as the energy prices retreat and the job market continues to grow.

Mr. Dudley said that the medium-term risks to the US economy tend to decrease in near future.

For that reason, he suggested that the market may believe that the Fed will likely stick plans to raise interest rates two times as their plan launched earlier.

According to the governor, Fed is adopting a risk management approach and they were prudent with the risks of tightening fiscal policy. Although the market supposes that Fed is cautious too early, but they decided to choose this method to not have to deal with the later discovered risks.

However, the Fed was slow to react to inflation risks. Inflation policies may be adjusted by increasing short-term interest rates quickly.

Thong Le

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