In July, Japanese exports slumped at the fastest pace since the global financial downtime with a resurgent yen along with weakness in overseas economies weighing on overseas shipments, thus leaving the national economy and the government more reliant on unsteady domestic demand to drive growth.

The 14% annual slump in exports in July generally matched the median estimate in a Reuters survey of economists and was the fastest drop since October 2009.

Japan's exports have sagged for 10 consecutive months, which is the longest losing streak since losses on American subprime mortgages spurred a global financial meltdown that almost destroyed the American financial system.

Economists tell there’s a surging risk that weakness in exports will remain as global economic uncertainty demonstrates little sign of receding, that could undermine Japanese policymakers' efforts to re-energize the national economy.

Bazooka

Published in News

On Tuesday, the evergreen buck hit one-month minimum against the Japanese yen, staying on the defensive after recent American economic data were seen likely to restrict the prospects of a near-term Fed interest rate lift.    

The dollar tumbled 0.8% to 100.43 yen and hit a minimum of 100.355 yen at one point, the dollar’s lowest reading against the yen in more than a month.

It feels like there’s a broad acceleration in greenback-selling momentum.

Against a basket of six key currencies, the major American currency sagged 0.2%, hitting 95.417.

As for the common currency, it rose 0.1%, getting to $1.1195. Against the Japanese yen, the euro slumped 0.7% to 112.45 yen.

The greenback has rebounded against the Japanese yen and the common currency after weaker-than-expected July retail sales were observed likely to delay a Fed rate lift.

The markets will wait for American data later in the day including housing starts, consumer prices as well as industrial output for another chance to estimate the health of the economy.

Aussie holds narrow revenues after RBA board views on inflation

The Australian dollar held revenues during Asia trade after Australia major bank minutes noted uncertainty in inflation predictions as market participants kept monitoring policy moves by regional major banks.   

The currency pair AUD/USD traded at 0.7677, showing a 0.05% rise, while USD/JPY traded at 101.03, tumbling 0.22%.

The US dollar index, measuring the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, sank 0.03%, trading at 95.55.

Overnight, the evergreen buck sagged on Monday as a rash of subdued economic data in Asia backed the possibility for further stimulus measures from major banks, applying downside pressure on the volatile greenback.

On Monday, traders kept monitoring global major bank activity closely ahead of next week's Jackson Hole Summit for major bankers in Wyoming.

Meanwhile, the Nikkei dropped 0.3% amid subdued economic growth in Japan during the three-month period through June, driving concerns that further stimulus plans could be forthcoming right before the end of the year.

Bazooka

Published in Forex

On Friday, the Japanese yen earned further on a slew of data from Japan across retail sales, consumer prices, industrial production and household spending and all ahead of a closely-watched major bank policy review.  

The currency pair USD/JPY was worth 104.19, showing a 1.03% tumble, while AUD/USD soared 0.36%, trading at 0.7530.

Later during the trading session, the Bank of Japan will disclose  its latest monetary policy statement as well as interest rate decision.

Earlier in Japan, in June, household spending edged down 1.1% in month-on-month, compared to an expected 0.4% revenue with year-on-year demonstrating a 2.2% sink. As for national CPI, it slumped 0.4% in June year-on-year, thus matching expectations, while the unemployment rate descended to 3.1% from 3.2%.

Apart from that, in Japan, industrial production headed north 1.9%, which is much better than the 0.7% revenue observed for June month-on-month. Additionally, retail sales sagged 1.4%, slower than the 1.5% drop expected.

Bazooka

Published in Forex

Yen goes down on BOJ expectations

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen sagged, pressured by hopes for considerable monetary stimulus by the BOJ and amid a media report that Japan’s authorities are going to unveil a $255 billion stimulus package.     

In fact, trading in the Japanese yen appeared to be choppy, with market participants taking cues from various headlines as for Japan's economic stimulus package.

The Japanese yen edged down after Japan's Fuji TV told that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was on the verge of announcing a stimulus package on Wednesday with a headline figure of approximately 27 trillion yen.

The Japanese yen extended its sag after the Wall Street Journal informed that Japan was considering issuing 50-year bonds, though later pared some losses right after the Ministry of Finance officially denied that it was considering such an issue.

The evergreen buck last traded at 105.65 yen, showing a 1% rise on the day. The US dollar had grown by as much as 1.8% to 106.54 yen at just one point on Wednesday.

Asia stocks keep to one-year peaks

Asian stocks got to new almost one-year peaks, while the Japanese yen weakened as market participants waited for major bank meetings this week, which could see promising stimulus in Japan and offer long-awaited clues on American interest rates. 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan earned 0.2%, getting to its highest value since August 11 of 2015. Moreover, that’s a 10% rise in a month.

Japanese Nikkei earned up to 1.1%, leading the region.

By the way, there’s a near-consensus among market participants that on Friday, the Bank of Japan is going to ease on Friday, most probably by simply ramping up its already enormous purchases of government bonds as well as riskier assets.

Dropping interest rates right into negative territory has proved rather an unpopular measure with the public and the government, accordingly deepening those dips is a less likely option, as sources familiar with the major bank thinking state. 

Published in Stock Markets
Tuesday, 26 July 2016 09:46

Nikkei down, Yen up against greenback

Nikkei goes down after gloomy report on stimulus plan

On Tuesday, market participants sharply scaled back their hopes for Japan’s soon-to-be announced stimulus package, thus bringing stocks down and pumping up the Japanese yen.    

The Nikkei Stock Average sank 1.6%, the Japanese yen strengthened abruptly, with the dollar-yen pair dropping below 105.00 for the first time for two weeks.

Additionally, Australian S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.2%, in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index earned 0.8%, while Chinese Shanghai Composite Index soared 0.5%.

A report issued on Tuesday by the Nikkei business daily told that the Japanese government is on the verge of injecting up to 6 trillion yen in direct spending, thus doubling last estimate. However, the spending is going to come over several years, it means the initial impact will be less than expected, disappointing market participants.

Japan’s fiscal stimulus seems to be less bold and traders aren’t sure whether Haruhiko Kuroda, BOJ Governor is going to ease further or not. 

Yen goes up against greenback

The Japanese yen managed to strengthen against its key counterparts during Asia trade, reaching its highest value against the evergreen buck since mid-July, as hopes receded for policy steps the Japanese government will probably put together. 

The major American currency gained downside momentum during Asia trade, trading at ¥104.32. The given value appears to be much lower than Monday’s ¥105.81 in New York.

The common currency slumped from ¥116.50 to ¥114.78, while the sterling dipped to ¥136.87 from ¥139.03. The Australian dollar as well as the New Zealand dollar traded higher against the Japanese currency.

Published in News

In July, Japan’s government kept its assessment of the national economy intact, though told business sentiment worsened after the Bank of Japan’s tankan poll demonstrated that the corporate mood stagnated in April-June because of a strengthening yen.   

The government left intact its assessment of exports as well as industrial production, however, there’re obvious signs that corporate activity’s losing its momentum as exports go down.

Overall, the report’s unlikely to relive uncertainty regarding Japan’s economy as the government drafts fiscal stimulus spending for the purpose of boosting growth and as hopes mount for more monetary easing to get the inflation rate higher.

Japan’s economy is still in moderate recovery, though weakness in certain areas can be clearly seen, as the Cabinet Office told on Monday in its monthly economic assessment, that appeared to be intact from the previous month.

By the way, Japanese companies are getting more cautious regarding the outlook.

EconomyVN News (internet)

Published in World economy

On Monday, the Japanese yen kept going down during Asia trade with trade data unveiling better than expected figures, although exports and imports dipped notably ahead of a week expected to bring the BOJ’s and Fed’ comment on monetary policy.      

The currency pair USD/JPY traded at 106.45, showing a 0.30% surge, while AUD/USD was worth 0.7470,going up 0.07%. As for GBP/USD, this currency pair was worth 1.3127, rising 0.13%.

In Japan, the adjusted trade balance kicked in at a surplus of approximately ¥33 billion, which is better than the ¥24 billion observed and imports slumped 18.8%, less than the 19.7% dip expected and exports sank 7.4%, less than the 11.6% tumble observed.

The US dollar index, normally gauging the greenback’s strength against key six currencies, gained 0.09%, trading at 97.50.

Ahead this week, market participants will look to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Fed monetary policy statement for fresh guidance regarding the pace of interest rate lifts over the next several months as well as a monetary policy announcement from the BOJ on Friday, amid surging expectations for further stimulus.

Yen

 

EconomyVN News (internet)

Published in Forex

Investing - On Friday, the Japanese yen reversed earlier weakness and earned moderately during Asia trade as a manufacturing gauge demonstrated a sort of revival.  

Japan posted the provisional manufacturing PMI for July at 49.0, which is better than the expected value of 48.3, and even higher than June’s outcome of 48.1, although still below expansion.

The currency pair USD/JPY was worth 105.83, showing a 0.03% dip, while AUD/USD hit 0.7474, slumping 0.25%. The common currency sagged 0.03%, trading at 1.1023.

The US dollar index, traditionally measuring the greenback’s power against six major currencies, ascended 0.02%, being worth 96.96.

Overnight, the major American currency pared losses against the other key counterparts because a stronger American housing sector data gave support, while upbeat remarks by Mario Draghi, ECB governor failed to ease global growth worries.

Data showed that American existing home sales surged by 1.1% in June to approximately 5.57 million units from May’s outcome of 5.51 million units and it was revised from the initial reading of about 5.53 million. 

JPY

Published in Forex

The yen yesterday had the strongest decline in the second consecutive session and fell to the 3-week low against the dollar as the market continues to expect that the central bank of Japan (BOJ) will strengthen easing the monetary policy by expanding a bond purchase program at a meeting of the agency on July 27-28.

Monday, July 11th, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that they will strengthen the economic stimulus measures after the landslide victory of the ruling coalition in Japan's upper house election held on the weekend. The rate increase of the majority coalition in the Japan upper house will allow policy makers to pass bigger fiscal stimulus package in a easier way.

Rumors of that the Central Bank of Japan (BOJ) will increase monetary stimulus are strengthened after the yesterday meeting took place between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and FED former chairman Ben Bernanke, who is known to be author of the giant quantitative easing programs to revive the US economy after the global economic crisis in 2008.

The British pound yesterday had strong recovery after the process of selecting new British prime minister to be completed quickly. Mrs. Theresa May will be the successor to Prime Minister Cameron after that Andrea Leadsom - her only rival in the race to the leadership position of the Conservative Party and as prime minister suddenly announced to give up..

UK finds a new prime minister, this has temporarily closed a period of 3 weeks with a series of turbulent shocking developments. Majority of Britons supported the decision to leave EU in a referendum held on 23rd of June, it has made the global financial markets tanked sharply. The market volatility has peaked when the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar fell to the 31-year record lows. After the UK stable politics, the next evolution of British Pound heavily depends on the results of meeting of Bank of England (BoE) will happen tomorrow. 

Today, Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce the results of the monetary policy periodical meetings. Analysts forecast BOC will maintain interest rates at 0.5% for this session. Canadian Dollar will continue rising if the BOC maintains optimistic assessment of economic prospects in the third quarter of Canada. In the case that the agency expresses concern about the negative impact of Brexit, CAD will decline again.

Thông Lê

Published in Trading strategies
Tuesday, 12 July 2016 07:46

Japanese Yen fell strongly in 2 years

Japanese yen yesterday had the strongest decline in 2 years against the dollar after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that they will strengthen the economic stimulus measures after the landslide victory of the ruling coalition in Japan's upper house election held on the weekend. The rate increase of the majority coalition in the Japan upper house will allow policy makers to pass bigger fiscal stimulus package in a easier way.

According to analysts, fiscal stimulus could reach 10 trillion yen, Central Bank of Japan (BOJ) is also expected to strengthen easing monetary policy by expanding programs to purchase bond in order to maintain a weaker Yen to boost growth after the currency rose sharply in recent times.

British pound rose in early trading week after Andrea Leadsom -  Theresa May's only rival in the race to the leadership position of the Conservative Party and as prime minister suddenly announced to give up. In a yesterday speech, Prime Minister David Cameron said he would resign on 12th of July. According to procedure, the queen will invite Ms. May, the leader of the party dominating in the House of England, to form a new government.

UK finds a new prime minister, this has temporarily closed a period of 3 weeks with a series of turbulent shocking developments. Majority of Britons supported the decision to leave EU in a referendum held on 23rd of June, it has made the global financial markets tanked sharply. The market volatility has peaked when the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar fell to the 31-year record lows.

The majority of analysts are predicting that the BoE will cut interest rate from 0.5% to 0.25% in this session, but there are people who still believe that this will only happen in August. The recent political arena in England is highly volatile, policy makers at the Bank of England may step into the period of remaining policy until the claims concerning Brexit from government are formally launched. If the BoE cut interest rates, the pound will continue falling and set new lows. In this case of no action from this agency, GBP/USD will see a bounce back from the 31-year low.

 

CURRENCY

BUY

SELL

TARGET

STOP LOSS

Gold

 

1358

1342

1366

EUR/USD

 

1.1090

1.1010

1.1130

GBP/USD

 

1.3090

1.2920

1.3180

AUD/USD

 

0.7600

0.7510

0.7650

USD/JPY

102.80 

 

103.80

102.30

 

Published in Trading strategies

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